Week of December 21st, 2025
The weekly pulse on McDowell Mountain Ranch. Market shifts, hyper-local insights, and what actually matters for homeowners right now.
THE NUMBERS.
New Listings: 1 (Avg. $899K)
Under contract: 2 (Avg. DOM: 59)
Closed sales: 1 (Avg. $1.25M, DOM: 33)
NEIGHBORHOOD SPOTLIGHT
Quiet
•
Livability
•
Central
•
Quiet • Livability • Central •
ARMONICO
Average sale price (12 mo): $1.506M | Average Sold $/SQFT: $476.96
Highest sale: $1.825M| Lowest Sale: $1.050M
Average DOM: 33 Days
What’s selling best in Armonico:
Turnkey, single-level homes with strong layouts and outdoor usability are commanding the highest premiums and selling with confidence.
Across recent closings, the top-performing homes shared several consistent traits:
-Single-level layouts dominated the upper end of pricing. One-story homes with functional flow (open kitchen + family room, split bedrooms, bonus dens) achieved higher $/sqft and faster buyer commitment than comparable two-story homes.
-Quality updates mattered more than size alone. Homes with renovated kitchens, updated baths, newer roofs/HVAC, or refreshed interiors consistently outperformed larger homes with dated finishes.
-Outdoor space materially influenced price. Properties backing to wash, preserve, or offering privacy, mountain views, pools, or well-designed patios achieved meaningful premiums, even when interior finishes were not fully luxury-level.
-Lot position inside the neighborhood mattered. Quiet interior streets, corner lots, preserve adjacency, and cul-de-sac locations consistently translated into stronger demand and pricing power.
-Livability beat flash. Buyers rewarded homes that felt move-in ready, functional, and comfortable over those that were simply oversized or cosmetically updated without strong flow.
Most Common Buyers:
Buyers in Armonico are making intentional, long-term lifestyle decisions rather than short-term or speculative purchases.
Based on recent sales patterns:
Most buyers appear to be established owner-occupants prioritizing comfort, privacy, and daily livability over quick resale upside.
Demand skewed toward homes suitable for full-time living, including single-level floor plans, flexible bonus spaces, and manageable outdoor maintenance.
Buyers consistently favored properties that balanced updated interiors with usable outdoor space, indicating a preference for turnkey living without sacrificing Arizona lifestyle features.
Pricing behavior suggests buyers are value-conscious but decisive, willing to pay premiums when the layout, lot, and condition align, but less forgiving of homes that miss on functionality.
Overall, Armonico continues to attract buyers seeking permanence, quality, and livability, homes are being purchased to live in and enjoy, not optimized or traded.
MATT’S MARKET TAKE
McDowell Mountain Ranch cooled slightly this week, but not in a way that signals weakness. After last week’s stronger activity (4 closed, 3 pending, 2 active), the pullback to fewer closings and contracts reflects normal absorption, not buyer retreat.
What’s happening beneath the surface is more important than the raw counts.
Buyers are still active, but they’re being selective and disciplined. Homes that are well-positioned on price, condition, and layout continue to attract interest, while anything misaligned is taking longer to convert. This aligns with what we’re seeing on the ground: decision-making is deliberate, not rushed.
One notable shift is increased flip activity. Renovated homes are re-entering the market more frequently, suggesting investors are sensing a stable window to exit, but buyers are no longer rewarding surface-level updates alone. Flips that combine thoughtful design, functional layouts, and strong lot placement are performing well; others are being met with hesitation.
Overall, this is a market defined by clarity over urgency. Liquidity still exists, but it’s earned, not given. Sellers who price accurately and present clean, livable homes are finding traction. Those chasing last month’s momentum are simply waiting longer.
Bottom line: McDowell Mountain Ranch remains healthy and balanced. Activity hasn’t disappeared, it’s just more intentional. Preparation and realism are doing the heavy lifting right now.
HOME OF THE WEEK
10226 E PINE VALLEY RD $945,990
Discovery Canyon
•
Designer Remodel
•
Natural Light
•
Discovery Canyon • Designer Remodel • Natural Light •
Listing Courtesy Of: Joshua Roubal - Dwellings Realty Group
Why It’s the Deal.
This home represents one of the cleanest lifestyle buys currently available in McDowell Mountain Ranch for buyers who want a true move-in-ready product without paying a premium for unnecessary over-design.
At roughly $514/sqft, it sits competitively against other renovated homes in the Ranch while delivering the features buyers consistently prioritize right now: a fully reimagined kitchen, cohesive interior finishes, open living spaces, and a private backyard that requires little immediate investment.
Unlike partial updates or surface-level flips, this home has undergone a thoughtful, top-to-bottom designer renovation, new kitchen, updated baths, refreshed flooring, modern lighting, and clean architectural continuity throughout. The result is a property that removes uncertainty and eliminates “next-project” risk for buyers who want certainty from day one.
In today’s MMR market, where buyers are selective and patience is high, homes that eliminate friction, layout issues, dated systems, cosmetic fatigue, are the ones converting quietly and efficiently. This one checks those boxes cleanly.
My Take.
This is not a speculative flip chasing top-of-market pricing. It’s a functional, polished residence aimed squarely at owner-occupants who want quality, consistency, and certainty.
In a market where urgency is low but standards remain high, homes like this tend to move quietly and cleanly when priced correctly. This one is positioned to do exactly that.
What Stands Out.
-Fully redesigned designer kitchen with quartz counters, large island, gas cooking, and stainless appliances
-Open-concept living with strong natural light and clean sightlines
-Updated bathrooms with modern finishes
-New flooring and refreshed interior surfaces throughout
-Private backyard with turf and refreshed landscaping — no immediate work required
-Community amenities: pools, trails, parks, and recreation within McDowell Mountain Ranch
-Priced below many speculative flips while offering equal or better livability
The Bottom Line.
This is a move-in-ready, designer-updated home in McDowell Mountain Ranch that prioritizes livability over flash. In a market rewarding preparation and realism, it’s positioned to trade cleanly rather than competitively — appealing to buyers who value certainty, cohesion, and a finished product without paying speculative flip pricing.
LEARN SOMETHING NEW
Why Buyers Don’t “See” Your Home the Way You Do (The Contrast Effect Most Sellers Never Account For)
Most homeowners assume buyers evaluate a home the way professionals do, room by room, feature by feature, logically comparing price, upgrades, and square footage against recent comps. That’s not how it actually happens.
In practice, buyers evaluate homes relatively, not absolutely. What they feel walking into your home is heavily shaped by what they saw immediately before it. Psychologists call this the contrast effect, and in real estate, it quietly decides which homes feel compelling and which ones feel “off”, even when nothing is technically wrong. Here’s what that means in the real world. Buyers don’t reset their perception between showings. If they just toured a home that felt bright, open, staged cleanly, and visually finished, your home becomes the comparison point, whether you intend it or not.
So instead of being judged on its own merits, your home gets experienced as:
darker than the last one
tighter than the last one
more dated than the last one
more work than the last one
Even if, on paper, it shouldn’t. This is why sellers often hear feedback like “Nice house, just didn’t feel right.” Nothing obvious failed. The brain simply categorized your home as the “step down” in the sequence. And the brain is ruthless about that. Once a buyer subconsciously labels a home as less than, they don’t argue with that conclusion. They stop asking questions. They stop picturing daily life there. They start mentally negotiating against the home instead of toward it. What makes this especially tricky is that sellers almost never experience their own home this way. You live in it. You’re acclimated. You don’t see it in contrast, buyers do. This is also why showing order matters far more than most people realize.
Buyers who see ten homes in a weekend aren’t remembering details, they’re remembering feelings. And those feelings are stacked, not isolated. The home that “wins” is often the one that either:
Resets the emotional bar, or
Outperforms the one right before it
Not necessarily the best home on paper. The good news? While you can’t control what a buyer saw before your home, you can control whether your home is vulnerable to negative contrast. Homes that sell cleanly tend to be contrast-resistant. They front-load ease and clarity before the buyer has time to compare.
That usually shows up as:
Immediate brightness at the entry (not two steps in, immediately)
A clean, neutral scent that doesn’t compete for attention
A first sightline that feels intentional and finished
Visual breathing room where the eye naturally lands
No early “projects” in the buyer’s first 60–90 seconds
Because the first minute matters more than the last. If early friction shows up, a dark entry, clutter at the door, an awkward transition, visible wear, the buyer’s brain starts creating resistance before they ever reach the kitchen, backyard, or primary suite. And once resistance shows up, logic rarely reverses it. This is why some homes with objectively stronger features struggle, while others move quietly and decisively. It’s not just pricing. It’s not just staging. It’s not just condition. It’s whether the home wins the comparison battle it didn’t ask to be in.
The bottom line is, Buyers don’t judge homes in isolation, they judge them in a sequence. The goal isn’t to be “good.” The goal is to feel better than the one before it, fast. Once the brain decides otherwise, it almost never comes back.
COMING SOON
COMING SOON
As of this morning’s MLS update:
Mirador — 10729 E ACOMA DR ~$2,250,000
4 BED / 4 BATH | 3,710 SQFT | 0.274 ACRE LOT
Listing Courtesy of Carol L Dillon - HomeSmart
Sienna Canyon — 10999 E WINCHCOMB DR ~$1,495,000
4 BED / 3 BATH | 2,936 SQFT | 0.227 ACRE LOT
Listing Courtesy of Robert Mattinsko - Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices
Discovery Canyon — 10234 E KAREN DR ~$785,000
3 BED / 2 BATH | 1,642 SQFT | 0.12 ACRE LOT
Listing Courtesy of Michelle Hodges - Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty
Armonico — 16299 N 108TH PL ~$1,140,000
3 BED / 3 BATH | 2,413 SQFT | 0.211 ACRE LOT
Listing Courtesy of Yvette McCarthy - Compass
COMMUNITY UPDATES
The McDowell Mountain Ranch Community Center is currently closed from November 24th through March for a full pool resurfacing project. This affects several programs and amenities in the meantime:
Aquatic Programs (Temporarily Relocated):
All swim lessons, lap swimming, water exercise, and youth aquatic programs are being held at:
Chaparral Aquatic Center — 5401 N Hayden Rd, Scottsdale, AZ 85250
Fitness Center Access (Temporary Options):
During the closure, MMR gym users are welcome to use any of the following Scottsdale facilities at no additional cost:
Cactus Aquatic & Fitness Center
Eldorado Aquatic & Fitness Center
Club SAR Fitness Center
If you normally use the Community Center pool or gym, this will be the setup until March.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Scottsdazzle
Nov 29 – Dec 31, 2025 in Old Town Scottsdale — Month-long holiday celebration with tree lighting, pop-up markets & live music.
Kick-off: Nov 29 | Jingle & Jazz Tree Lighting 7–9 pm
Stroll & Shop Saturdays Dec 6, 13, 20 (6–9 pm) on Scottsdale Waterfront
Holiday Lights at McCormick-Stillman Railroad Park
Nov 28- Dec 30, nightly 5:30-9:30pm
Step into a twinkling wonderland of lights and displays. Ride the Paradise & Pacific Railroad through the sparkling seasonal setup, a classic festive tradition for families.
Christmas at the Princess
Nov 29th, 2025 - Jan 3rd, 2026
This Hallmark holiday event features ice skating, colorful light shows, s’mores and fire pits, festive décor, photo ops with Santa, seasonal treats, and family entertainment.
ZooLights at Phoenix Zoo
Massive light displays, themed holiday decorations, family fun under desert skies, perfect if you want to mix a night out with a zoo visit
Thinking about selling in 2025/2026?
I’ll run a free, hyper-local valuation for your exact section of McDowell Mountain Ranch (not a generic online estimate)
Committed to MMR. Available anytime.