Week of December 28th, 2025
The weekly pulse on McDowell Mountain Ranch. Market shifts, hyper-local insights, and what actually matters for homeowners right now.
THE NUMBERS.
No new listings this week. (Happy NY!!)
Under contract: 3 (Avg. DOM: 20)
Closed sales: 3 (Avg. $971K, DOM: 49)
NEIGHBORHOOD SPOTLIGHT
Quiet
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Timeless
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Refined
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Quiet • Timeless • Refined •
CAMELOT
Average sale price (12 mo): $1.098M | Average Sold $/SQFT: $397.35
Highest sale: $1.245| Lowest Sale: $952K
Average DOM: 89 Days
What’s selling best in Camelot:
In Camelot, well-positioned homes with strong layouts, meaningful square footage, and quality updates are commanding the highest premiums, even when days on market are extended.
Across the two most recent closings, pricing performance was driven less by raw size and more by layout efficiency, interior quality, and lot positioning within the neighborhood.
Key observations from recent sales:
Functional layouts outperformed size alone. Homes with open, flowing floor plans, split bedrooms, and usable bonus spaces achieved stronger $/sqft than properties that were simply larger without improved livability.
Interior condition was a primary pricing driver. Updated kitchens, refreshed baths, and modernized systems materially impacted buyer willingness to pay, even when exterior finishes or lot size were similar.
Outdoor usability and views mattered. Properties offering mountain or city views, pools, and thoughtfully designed outdoor living spaces captured meaningful premiums relative to otherwise comparable homes.
Lot position influenced buyer confidence. Homes located on quieter interior streets or offering privacy advantages translated into stronger pricing power and faster buyer commitment.
Buyers favored homes that felt complete. Move-in-ready properties with cohesive updates consistently outperformed homes that were partially renovated or relied on size alone to justify pricing.
Most Common Buyers:
Buyers in Camelot are making intentional, long-term ownership decisions, prioritizing comfort, quality, and livability over speculative upside.
Based on recent sales behavior:
The buyer pool skews toward established owner-occupants seeking primary residences rather than short-term investors.
Demand favors homes suitable for full-time living, including flexible interior spaces, single-level or efficient multi-level layouts, and manageable outdoor maintenance.
Buyers are value-conscious but decisive, willing to pay premiums when layout, condition, and setting align, but less forgiving of functional compromises.
Overall demand reflects a preference for homes designed to live in and enjoy, not properties optimized solely for resale or cosmetic appeal
Bottom line:
Camelot supports strong pricing when homes present as complete, functional, and thoughtfully updated. Buyers reward livability, layout, and setting more than size alone, and pricing strength is driven by how well a home fits long-term lifestyle needs.
MATT’S MARKET TAKE
New Year’s week brought a predictable pause across McDowell Mountain Ranch, with activity slowing in a way that reflects calendar timing, not a change in market health. With no new listings and fewer contracts this week, the data aligns with what we typically see during the final holiday stretch, buyers and sellers briefly step back before re-engaging in January.
Importantly, this slowdown is seasonal, not structural. The three closings that did occur moved at reasonable timelines, and the average days on market remains consistent with a market where buyers are active, but selective. Serious participants are still present; they’re simply not transacting during holiday weeks unless the opportunity is compelling.
What continues to stand out beneath the surface is buyer discipline. Homes that are well-positioned on price, condition, and layout remain the ones converting. Properties that miss on one or more of those variables are not being chased, even when inventory is temporarily thin.
The takeaway: this week is best viewed as a reset point, not a signal. As attention shifts back from holidays to housing, activity should normalize quickly, especially for homes that are prepared, realistically priced, and aligned with current buyer expectations.
Bottom line: McDowell Mountain Ranch remains stable and healthy. The market didn’t cool, it briefly exhaled. January will tell the real story.
HOME OF THE WEEK
10913 E SALT BUSH DR $950,000
Single-Level
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Stunning View
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Gate Community
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Single-Level • Stunning View • Gate Community •
Listing Courtesy Of: Sarina Bergman - Keller Williams Arizona Realty
Why This One Matters.
This home is a textbook example of what’s working right now in McDowell Mountain Ranch.
Single-level layouts, strong natural light, and thoughtful updates continue to outperform, and this property checks those boxes without chasing speculative, top-of-market pricing. Positioned on a premium cul-de-sac lot bordering preserve land, it delivers privacy, views, and livability in a way buyers are actively rewarding.
The layout is efficient and functional, the updates are meaningful (not cosmetic), and the setting does the heavy lifting. That combination is exactly where demand has been concentrating.
My Take.
At ~$490/sqft, this home sits competitively relative to recent renovated sales while offering something many don’t: certainty. In a market where buyers are selective and urgency is low, homes that remove friction, layout issues, deferred maintenance, location compromises, are the ones converting.
That dynamic is already showing here: multiple offers received within days.
What Stands Out.
-Single-level split floor plan with strong flow and separation
-Preserve adjacency + mountain views, rare inside Castle Chase
-Updated kitchen with quartz counters, newer appliances, and clean finishes
-Renovated primary bath with walk-in shower and dual vanities
-Two patios offering flexible indoor-outdoor living
-Quiet cul-de-sac location inside a gated enclave
The Bottom Line.
This is not a headline-grabbing flip. It’s a quietly strong listing aligned with buyer behavior in today’s McDowell Mountain Ranch market, livable, well-positioned, and priced with realism.
Homes like this don’t need hype. They just need to be right.
LEARN SOMETHING NEW
Why Price Isn’t What Sells a Home, Positioning Is.
Most homeowners believe selling a home is primarily about price. Get the number right, and the market will do the rest. That assumption is understandable, and wrong. Price determines who looks at your home. Positioning determines how they respond once they do.
Two homes can be listed at the same price, in the same neighborhood, with similar square footage, and experience wildly different outcomes. One sells quickly with clean terms. The other lingers, attracts hesitant buyers, and invites negotiation. The difference is rarely the list price alone. It’s how the home is positioned in the buyer’s decision funnel.
How Buyers Actually Decide
Buyers don’t move through the market linearly. They don’t evaluate every home objectively, score it, then pick the best one. Instead, they move through three subconscious phases:
Elimination
Comparison
Justification
Most homes never make it past phase one. If a home introduces friction early, layout confusion, visible projects, awkward flow, unclear value, the buyer’s brain quietly removes it from contention. They may still walk through it. They may even say, “Nice house.” But the decision has already been made. Once eliminated, buyers don’t re-evaluate. They rationalize moving on.
The Hidden Role of “Decision Energy”
Here’s something most people don’t realize: Buyers have a limited amount of decision energy during a showing. Every unanswered question, every visible “maybe,” every unclear transition consumes that energy. The more mental effort required to understand or forgive a home, the less energy remains to imagine living there. Homes that sell cleanly tend to reduce decision-making, not add to it. They answer questions before they’re asked:
Does this layout work?
Is anything urgent?
Will this feel comfortable day-to-day?
Am I going to discover surprises later?
The faster a home answers those questions, the safer it feels, and safety is the foundation of buyer commitment.
Why “Good Homes” Sit
Many homes that struggle aren’t bad homes. They’re simply mispositioned. Common examples:
A well-maintained home that still feels dated in its first impression
A large home with flexible space that reads as confusing instead of versatile
A solid property priced “fairly” but competing against emotionally stronger options
These homes don’t fail on fundamentals. They fail on clarity.
In today’s market, clarity beats upside. Buyers would rather pay slightly more for certainty than gamble on potential.
What High-Performing Listings Have in Common
Across price points and neighborhoods, homes that convert efficiently tend to share the same traits:
Immediate legibility — buyers understand the layout within seconds
Front-loaded confidence — the strongest impression happens early, not late
Low visible friction — few obvious “next projects” competing for attention
Aligned expectations — the home delivers exactly what the price suggests
These homes don’t rely on buyers to “see the vision.” They make the vision unavoidable.
The Real Job of a Listing
A listing’s job is not to showcase everything. Its job is to:
Eliminate doubt
Control the comparison
Preserve buyer momentum
When that happens, price becomes a confirmation, not a negotiation.
The Takeaway
If you’re buying, don’t just ask whether a home is “worth the price.” Ask how much mental effort it’s asking of you. If you’re selling, understand this: The market doesn’t reward effort. It rewards clarity.
And clarity is designed, not guessed.
COMING SOON
COMING SOON
As of this morning’s MLS update (subject to change):
Discovery Canyon — Tracking in the high-$700s
3 BED / 2 BATH | ~1,600 SQFT
Source: ARMLS. Listing entered by Michelle Hodges - Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty
Details and pricing subject to change. Information based on current MLS data and market expectations.
Sonoran Estates — Tracking in the high-$4s
5 BED / 5 BATH | ~4,000 SQFT
Source: ARMLS. Listing entered by William Lall - Fathom Realty Elite
Details and pricing subject to change. Information based on current MLS data and market expectations.
COMMUNITY UPDATES
The McDowell Mountain Ranch Community Center is currently closed from November 24th through March for a full pool resurfacing project. This affects several programs and amenities in the meantime:
Aquatic Programs (Temporarily Relocated):
All swim lessons, lap swimming, water exercise, and youth aquatic programs are being held at:
Chaparral Aquatic Center — 5401 N Hayden Rd, Scottsdale, AZ 85250
Fitness Center Access (Temporary Options):
During the closure, MMR gym users are welcome to use any of the following Scottsdale facilities at no additional cost:
Cactus Aquatic & Fitness Center
Eldorado Aquatic & Fitness Center
Club SAR Fitness Center
If you normally use the Community Center pool or gym, this will be the setup until March.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Scottsdale Western Week
Jan 24th – Feb 1st | Old Town Scottsdale
A celebration of Western heritage with multiple events throughout the week, including art walks, historic films, lasso classes, and community activities. Western Week culminates in cultural highlights and family-friendly experiences.
Scottsdale Book Festival 2026
Jan 24th, 10am-5pm | Scottsdale Civic Center
Free, community-focused literary festival with author talks, interactive storytelling, food, and activities for all ages.
Arizona Concours d’Elegance
Jan 18th | Scottsdale Civic Center
Annual showcase of classic, rare, and luxury automobiles. A must-see for car enthusiasts and collectors.
Barrett-Jackson Collector Car Auction
Jan 17th-25th | WestWorld of Scottsdale
One of the world’s premier collector car auctions, featuring rare vehicles, VIP experiences, and special events throughout the week.
Arizona Musicfest 2025-26 Concert Series
Various dates | 2025-2026 Season
A season of live concerts across venues, including spirited performances and Broadway-style shows in the greater Scottsdale area.
2026 Arizona Travel Expo
Jan 11th, 10am-2pm | Hilton Scottsdale Resort & Villas
Travel expo with representatives from cruise lines, tour operators, and destination partners. Great for planning your next adventure.
Family Fun Festivals at Arizona Boardwalk
Ongoing in January | Arizona Boardwalk Courtyard
Free family-friendly events including bubble fess, winter carnival themes, interactive characters, and more throughout the month.
A quick note as we start the new year.
As we step into 2026, I just want to say thank you, genuinely, to everyone who takes the time to read these updates and stay connected to what’s happening in McDowell Mountain Ranch. I don’t take that lightly. Attention is valuable, and I’m grateful you choose to spend a few minutes here each week.
These updates exist for a simple reason: clarity. Real estate can be loud, emotional, and often over-simplified. My goal is to cut through that and offer something steady, honest context, thoughtful interpretation, and information you can actually trust, whether you’re actively in the market or just keeping a pulse on the place you call home.
There’s no pitch behind this and no expectation attached. I’m not trying to push decisions or manufacture urgency. I see this as a long-term relationship built on transparency and respect, showing up consistently, sharing what I’m seeing, and being a reliable point of reference when questions come up. McDowell Mountain Ranch is a special community, and it deserves thoughtful coverage, not hype. I’m grateful for the opportunity to be a small part of that, simply as a resource, a listener, and someone who cares about getting it right.
Wishing you a peaceful, healthy, and grounded start to the year ahead.
Committed to McDowell Mountain Ranch.
Here as a resource. Always.