Week of November 30th, 2025
The weekly pulse on McDowell Mountain Ranch. Market shifts, hyper-local insights, and what actually matters for homeowners right now.
THE NUMBERS.
New listings this week: 1 (Avg. $1.45M)
Under contract: 3 (Avg. DOM: 25)
Closed sales: 3 (Avg. $1.239M)
NEIGHBORHOOD SPOTLIGHT
Quiet
•
Turnkey
•
Open-concept
•
Quiet • Turnkey • Open-concept •
EAGLE RIDGE
Average sale price (12 mo): $1.178M | Average Sold $/SQFT: $490.21
Highest sale: $1.325M | Lowest Sale: $1.030M
Average DOM: 64 Days
What’s selling best in Eagle Ridge:
Fully renovated kitchens with quartz / granite, shaker cabinets
Luxury bathrooms w/ updated tile, showers, fixtures
Open-concept living layouts
Backyards with natural open space, privacy, and mountain views
Newer HVAC, roof updates, water heaters
Flooring upgrades (tile, vinyl plank)
Outdoor amenities: pools, pergolas, covered patios, usable yard
Most Common Buyers:
Move-up families and Scottsdale professionals looking for quiet streets, privacy, and updated, turnkey homes.
MATT’S MARKET TAKE
MMR moved with quiet strength this week. Activity wasn’t flashy, but it was solid: one new listing, steady days on market in the mid-20s, and three closings that all held firm near their list-to-sale expectations.
Buyers aren’t rushing, but they are showing up for well-positioned homes, especially anything updated, turnkey, or offering McDowell views. Sellers who price correctly continue to move with zero drama.
In short: MMR is behaving like a confident, balanced market, predictable, steady, and still delivering strong results for homes that show and price well.
DEAL OF THE WEEK
16142 N 102nd Way $1,095,000
Renovated
•
Twin-Primary Suite
•
Move-In Ready
•
Renovated • Twin-Primary Suite • Move-In Ready •
Listing Courtesy Of: Christine M Espinoza - RETSY
Why It’s the Deal.
This is one of the few fully renovated, true move-in-ready homes under $1.1M in all of McDowell Mountain Ranch, and it shows like something in the mid-$1.2M’s. Almost every interior surface has been touched with quality upgrades, and the vaulted ceilings + open layout create a modern, high-impact feel buyers are paying premiums for right now.
The kitchen is a standout: quartz counters, waterfall island, built-in fridge, wine storage, custom cabinetry, and designer lighting, exactly the finish package Scottsdale buyers want in 2025. The bathrooms are fully refreshed, the flooring is updated, and the whole home has a clean, cohesive aesthetic that feels custom, not builder-basic.
Outside, you get mature landscaping, fresh greenery, a private yard, and a pebble-finish pool, a major value add at this price point, especially in a neighborhood where many comps don’t have updated outdoor spaces.
At only $1,095,000, it sits below the typical price for 4-bed remodeled homes in Discovery Trails and surrounding pockets. For buyers wanting a renovated product without paying $1.2M–$1.3M+, this is one of the most compelling options in the Ranch right now.
My Take
This remodel hits the sweet spot: high-quality finishes, tasteful design, and real lifestyle improvements, all without drifting into “over-renovated” price territory. The home lives like a much more expensive product, especially the kitchen and main living zones, and the upgrades feel fresh (not dated, not trendy-for-last-year).
In today’s MMR market, where $1.2M+ remodeled listings are getting steady traction, being able to buy a turnkey 4-bed with a pool, mountain proximity, and modern interiors for $1.095M is strong. For a buyer who wants updated, done-for-you living in the Ranch? Easy yes. Clean. Sharp. Competitive..
What Stands Out.
• Fully renovated interiors — kitchen, baths, flooring, lighting
• Quartz waterfall island + custom cabinetry + wine storage
• Updated pebble pool + mature, private landscaping
• Vaulted ceilings + open concept layout
• Two primary suites (unique value)
• Mountain views + proximity to trails, parks, and community amenities
• Turnkey, zero-work needed — Lock. Leave. Live.
• Priced aggressively vs. similar renovated 4-beds in MMR
The Bottom Line.
If you want a fully remodeled, move-in-ready home in McDowell Mountain Ranch, not a project, not a “maybe we can update it later”, this is the cleanest option in the entire sub-$1.2M range. The finishes are modern, the systems are updated, the community is gated, and the home checks every box for Scottsdale’s move-up buyer. At $1.129M, you’re getting the features of a $1.3M+ remodel at a meaningful discount.
LEARN SOMETHING NEW
The Hidden Metric That Predicts Your Home’s Future Value: Supply Pressure
When you hear agents or headlines talk about “inventory,” it usually sounds like one big number: Scottsdale has X months of supply or MMR has Y active listings. That sounds helpful, but it’s almost useless for you personally. What really matters is how much pressure there is on the specific slice of the market your home lives in, your price band, your style of home, your approximate size. A $950K single-level remodel in MMR does not live in the same universe as a $2.3M custom on a view lot, even if they share a ZIP code.
Think of the market like a series of mini-markets stacked on top of each other: $900K–$1.1M, $1.1M–$1.3M, $1.3M–$1.6M, and so on. Each one has its own ecosystem of buyers and sellers. In your band, the dynamic is simple: how many homes are competing vs. how many are getting scooped up and going under contract. If the number of buyers actively writing offers in that band outpaces the number of new listings, you get pressure: homes go pending faster, sellers can be firmer on price, and buyers have to compete. If the opposite happens, same number of listings but fewer buyers writing offers, the air goes out of the balloon and pricing power cools off, even if the overall inventory stat for “Scottsdale” looks fine on paper.
This is why you can see inventory rising on a chart while prices are still inching up in certain pockets: there may be more homes on paper, but if serious buyers in your price tier are still outnumbering quality listings, the best homes still sell quickly and for strong numbers. Flip it around and you see the reverse: inventory can technically fall, but if buyer demand in your band has softened (for example, move-up buyers pause because of rates, or that price point just got ahead of itself), you can feel the market shift into “meh” territory, more price reductions, longer days on market, and buyers negotiating harder. Same macro inventory story, totally different micro reality.
The cleanest way to see this pressure is to look at the ratio of active listings to under-contract listings in your lane. If $1.1M–$1.3M has 22 active and 10 under contract, that’s a market telling you, “Good homes here are in play; buyers are writing.” Sellers in that band can push closer to the top of the comp range, and properly presented homes don’t need gimmicks to get action. If that same band has 22 active and only 3 under contract, the tone changes completely. Now buyers know they have options. They feel less urgency, they negotiate harder, and they’re more likely to wait for a price reduction than fight to win a home. Exact same number of actives, radically different pressure.
For you as a homeowner, this is why broad statements like “the market is up” or “inventory is down” don’t actually tell you whether it’s a good time to list, hold, or upgrade. Your real competition is the handful of homes a buyer will shortlist the same day they see yours. If there are only a few and many of them are already under contract, you’re stepping into a lane with tailwind. If there are a ton sitting and barely any go pending each week, you’re walking into a pricing contest where buyers hold more of the cards.
Bottom line: your home’s value is not set by some abstract “Scottsdale inventory” number; it’s set by the under-contract percentage in your specific price tier on the day you hit the market. That percentage is one of the closest things we have to a leading indicator of where your value is headed in the next 30–90 days. Watch that, not just the headlines, and you’ll make timing, pricing, and upgrade decisions from a position of real clarity, not noise.
COMING SOON
COMING SOON
As of this morning’s MLS update:
Sunset Point — 10453 E ACOMA DR ~$1,180,000
3 BED / 2 BATH | 1,908 SQFT | 0.139 ACRE LOT
COMMUNITY UPDATES
The McDowell Mountain Ranch Community Center is currently closed from November 24th through March for a full pool resurfacing project. This affects several programs and amenities in the meantime:
Aquatic Programs (Temporarily Relocated):
All swim lessons, lap swimming, water exercise, and youth aquatic programs are being held at:
Chaparral Aquatic Center — 5401 N Hayden Rd, Scottsdale, AZ 85250
Fitness Center Access (Temporary Options):
During the closure, MMR gym users are welcome to use any of the following Scottsdale facilities at no additional cost:
Cactus Aquatic & Fitness Center
Eldorado Aquatic & Fitness Center
Club SAR Fitness Center
If you normally use the Community Center pool or gym, this will be the setup until March.
UPCOMING EVENTS
Scottsdazzle
Nov 29 – Dec 31, 2025 in Old Town Scottsdale — Month-long holiday celebration with tree lighting, pop-up markets & live music.
Kick-off: Nov 29 | Jingle & Jazz Tree Lighting 7–9 pm
Stroll & Shop Saturdays Dec 6, 13, 20 (6–9 pm) on Scottsdale Waterfront
Light Up the Town - Holiday Tour
Dec 15 – Dec 31, 2025 in Fountain Hills — Home-decoration tour + community voting on best holiday displays.
3rd Thursday Concert Series at Centennial Pavilion
Recurring monthly event (Nov 20, 2025 – Apr 16, 2026) at Centennial Pavilion, Fountain Hills — Live music outdoors (6:00–7:30 pm).
Breakfast with Santa / Sensitive Santa
Nov 29, 2025 at Fountain Hills — Pancake breakfast, crafts & Santa (and a “sensitive Santa” session for families with special needs).
Christmas at the Princess
Lagoon lights, ice-rink, festive décor, and family-friendly holiday activities — one of the most iconic holiday experiences in the Valley.
ZooLights at Phoenix Zoo
Massive light displays, themed holiday decorations, family fun under desert skies — perfect if you want to mix a night out with a zoo visit
More Information
Thinking about selling in 2025?
I’ll run a free, hyper-local valuation for your exact section of McDowell Mountain Ranch (not a generic online estimate)
Committed to MMR. Available anytime.