McDowell Mountain Ranch
Updated Monthly.

THE MARKET.

January 2026

KEY NUMBERS.

Active: 34

Closed: 16

Pending: 19

New:

Active: 34 Closed: 16 Pending: 19 New:

SALE/LIST RATIO

AVERAGE DOM

AVERAGE CLOSED $/SQFT

MONTHS OF INVENTORY

MEDIAN SALE PRICE

% OF INVENTORY UNDER CONTRACT

97%

No Change vs. last month

59

No Change vs. last month

$540.86

+9.11% vs. last month

2.66 MO

+7.77% vs. last month

$1.125

-5.22% vs. last month

55.88%

+36.53% vs. last month

January 2026 – Market Snapshot (MMR)

January in McDowell Mountain Ranch reflects a market that is active, competitive, and selective, not overheated, but far from slow.

The sale-to-list ratio held steady at 97%, reinforcing that sellers are still achieving strong outcomes when priced correctly. Average days on market remained at 59, signaling stability in buyer behavior rather than deterioration in demand. Homes are moving, just not impulsively.

Price per square foot increased meaningfully to $540.86 (+9.11%), suggesting buyers are still willing to pay for quality, condition, and location. Meanwhile, the median sale price moderated slightly to approximately $1.125M, which appears more reflective of mix and segmentation rather than broad value erosion.

Months of inventory ticked up to 2.66, but that remains firmly within seller-leaning territory. Notably, over 55% of active listings are currently under contract, a sharp jump from last month, confirming that absorption has strengthened to start the year.

The takeaway: demand in MMR is focused and disciplined, but very much present.

Median Sale Price - 24 Month

Median sale price adjusted in January following late-2025 volatility, settling near $1.125M. The recent pullback appears driven more by price-point mix and transaction composition than by underlying value deterioration. Over the two-year window, MMR continues to demonstrate long-term price resilience, with higher lows forming even after seasonal slowdowns. This reflects structural demand rather than short-term momentum swings.

Active Inventory - 24 Month

Active inventory increased modestly to 2.66 months of supply, remaining well within seller-leaning territory. While supply has expanded from historical lows, it remains controlled and far from excess. The trend shows measured normalization rather than imbalance. Inventory growth at this level improves buyer choice without meaningfully weakening pricing fundamentals.

% of Inventory Under Contract - 24 Month

Over 55% of active listings are currently under contract, marking a significant rebound in absorption compared to late 2025 levels. This jump indicates renewed buyer engagement to start the year, particularly for well-priced and well-presented properties. The data suggests that demand is selective, but when alignment exists, transactions are occurring efficiently.

FOR HOMEOWNERS - What This Means

For Sellers:

  • Buyer demand is real, but precision matters.

  • With over half of inventory under contract, correctly positioned homes are moving.

  • The rise in $/sqft indicates buyers are rewarding quality, not overreach.

  • Inventory is still relatively tight at 2.66 months, leverage exists, but pricing strategy must be intentional.

This is not a “list high and hope” market. It is a “price sharp and execute” market.

For Buyers:

  • Inventory has improved modestly, but absorption remains strong.

  • 55% under contract signals real competition on well-priced homes.

  • The slight pullback in median price may present opportunity at certain price points.

  • Negotiation leverage exists, but primarily on homes that miss the mark.

Selective buyers who move decisively on value are winning.

For Investors:

  • The increase in $/sqft supports long-term appreciation fundamentals.

  • Inventory remains controlled, no signs of oversupply.

  • The strong under-contract percentage reflects sustained buyer activity even at higher price points.

  • MMR continues to demonstrate resilience relative to broader Scottsdale.

This is a fundamentals-driven market, not a speculative one.

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